Evaluating Participatory Modeling: Developing a Framework for Cross-case Analysis

Participatory modeling is increasingly recognised as an effective way to assist collective decision-making processes in the domain of natural resource management. This paper introduces a framework for evaluating projects that have adopted a participatory modeling approach. This framework – known as the ‘Protocol of Canberra’ – was developed through a collaboration between French and Australian researchers engaged in participatory modeling and evaluation research. The framework seeks to assess the extent to which different participatory modeling practices reinforce or divert from the theoretical assumptions they are built upon. The paper discusses the application of the framework in three case-studies, two from Australia and one from the Pacific island of the Republic of Kiribati. The paper concludes with some comments for future use of the framework in a range of participatory modeling contexts, including fostering consideration of why and how different methodological approaches are used to achieve project aims and to build a collective vision amongst diverse stakeholders.participation, modeling, evaluation, complex systems science

Gamification of participatory modeling in the context of sustainable development: existing and new solutions

Serious games and gamification tools have gradually expanded their application in participatory settings, while already being widely used in the context of sustainable development in general. Their popularity is explained by their ability to create an engaging and experimental environment, which evokes critical thought, meaningful interaction between the participants and experience-based learning. Although game design principles and tools are, to a large extent, universal, their application differs from one field to another. The simulation modelling field has a long history of using game elements to make complicated models more user-friendly and understandable for wider audiences. Management flight simulators, microworlds, policy exercises and strategic simulations are among the most common examples. Meanwhile, the urban planning field often makes use of interactive 3D maps, including the most recent advancements in applying XR technologies to make the interaction with the system more tactile and collaborative in a multi- user setting. Serious games are used in participatory projects as a supplementary approach to provoking discussion among the stakeholders and stimulating critical thinking. Gamification in the participatory modeling field is commonly used at the initial and final stages of the process or by incorporating a role playing component into the process (e.g. in companion modeling and social simulations). Based on the existing research, we have two main observations: (1) in each of the above-mentioned fields there are traditional ways of using gamification and visualization instruments and there is a lack of ‘cross-pollination’ between various application fields in terms of choosing gamification tools, (2) gamification tools are commonly used at one or two stages of participatory modeling process but rarely over the entire process of participatory modeling. We suggest that by introducing more gamification elements throughout the whole PM process we can produce a more gameful or, at least, a more engaging experience for stakeholders. As a preliminary step towards wider use of gamification in the participatory modeling process, we first analyze how existing gaming solutions from various fields can be applied in the context of different stages of participatory modeling. In our research we critically reviewed the use of gamification from two perspectives: (1) to which extent it could help to mitigate the challenges of participatory modeling process (e.g. biases, groupthink, conflicts, etc.) and consequently contribute to better learning and communication between the participants, (2) how it could contribute to the creation of engaging experiences for the participants during participatory modeling process. As a result, we propose a framework for gamification of each stage of the participatory modeling process taking into consideration the already existing solutions, as well as the insights from the game design and behavioral science fields

Modelling outputs from a stakeholders' self-modeling to catch environmental uncertainty: A case study in the Sahel

A participatory modeling approach called "self-design" has been experimented in Senegal with the aim of letting farmers design their own model of the local natural resources management issues. The success of the experiment and its outputs led to a new participatory modeling approach based on the central principle of letting stakeholders design and use their own conceptual model of environmental management. This unusual endogenous design resulted in a qualitative but nevertheless worthy model of the Sahelian environmental uncertainty, which is currently enriching the debate about the value of local worldviews for environmental modeling

The Development of Attitudes Toward Scientific Models During a Participatory Modeling Process – The Impact of Participation and Social Network Structure

Scientific models are increasingly being used to support participatory natural resources management decision making processes. These models allow stakeholders and scientists to explore potential policy and management options and can help facilitate discussion surrounding concerning uncertainty and different sources of knowledge. The unique benefits of participatory modeling processes, however, are contingent upon stakeholders understanding of, engagement with, and willingness to use the scientific models as sources of knowledge and information. Little is known, however, about how stakeholders view scientific models within these processes. We examined changes in stakeholders’ attitudes toward scientific models over the course of OysterFutures, a 2-year, facilitated participatory modeling process that aimed to create consensus recommendations for oyster management in the Choptank River Complex, MD, United States. Five ordered logistic regression models were used to test hypotheses concerning the impact of social network measures, factors related to the participatory modeling process itself, and stakeholder characteristics on salience, credibility and legitimacy (SCL) attitudes toward models. Results suggested that stakeholders’ ways of knowing was a significant driver of salience, credibility and legitimacy elements of attitudes toward models. Additionally, acting as a gatekeeper within the social network resulted in significantly lower attitudes toward model credibility. These results indicate that the scientific model acted as a boundary object that facilitated discussion during the participatory modeling process. By better understanding the factors that influence model attitude formation, these processes can adjust their design and function to better take advantage of these models. Additionally, practitioners can have more realistic expectations concerning the role of models within participatory, collaborative natural resources decision-making processes

Evaluation of Bayesian Networks in Participatory Water Resources Management, Upper Guadiana Basin, Spain

Stakeholder participation is becoming increasingly important in water resources management. In participatory processes, stakeholders contribute by putting forward their own perspective, and they benefit by enhancing their understanding of the factors involved in decision making. A diversity of modeling tools can be used to facilitate participatory processes. Bayesian networks are well suited to this task for a variety of reasons, including their ability to structure discussions and visual appeal. This research focuses on developing and testing a set of evaluation criteria for public participation. The advantages and limitations of these criteria are discussed in the light of a specific participatory modeling initiative. Modeling work was conducted in the Upper Guadiana Basin in central Spain, where uncontrolled groundwater extraction is responsible for wetland degradation and conflicts between farmers, water authorities, and environmentalists. Finding adequate solutions to the problem is urgent because the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive requires all aquatic ecosystems to be in a “good ecological state” within a relatively short time frame. Stakeholder evaluation highlights the potential of Bayesian networks to support public participation processes